摘要：地質灾害气象预警是有效减轻地质灾害造成损失的重要手段，其核心是研究气象条件与地质灾害危险性的时空关系，即地质灾害气象预警模型。新疆地质构造复杂，内外动力作用强烈，是中国地质灾害发育严重的地区之一。基于地质灾害的地球内外动力耦合作用成因理论，建立了新疆地质灾害气象预警区划；利用地理信息系统（GIS）平台，优选内外动力地质作用指标，依据专家经验，确定各类要素权重，计算地质环境指标值，构建了基于内外动力耦合成因理论的新疆地质灾害气象预警乘积范式的显式统计模型；在此基础上，进行历史地质灾害点校验，获得了与实际地质灾害发生情况较为一致的地质灾害气象预警结果。
关键词：地质灾害；气象预警；内外动力耦合；显式统计模型；地理信息系统；地质环境指标；乘积范式；新疆
中图分类号：P694文献标志码：A
Explicit Statistic Meteorological Earlywarning Model of
Geological Hazards in Xinjiang， China Based on the
Genesis Theory of Endogenic and Exogenic Coupling
LI Shouding1，2，3， BAI Yaheng1，2， JIANG Yue4， WANG Zhanhe4，
WEI Wenhui4， LI Xiao2，3， LIU Linan2，3
（1. School of Resources and Environment， North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power， Zhengzhou
450045， Henan， China； 2. Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering， Institute of Geology and Geophysics，
Chinese Academy of Sciences， Beijing 100029， China； 3. College of Earth Sciences， University of Chinese
Academy of Sciences， Beijing 100049， China； 4. Geological Environment Monitoring Institute of
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region， Urumchi 830000， Xinjiang， China）
Abstract： Meterological earlywarning is the key issue that arises during the preventions of geological hazards. A model of meterological earlywarning refers to the study of spacetime relationships between meterological conditions and risks of geological hazards， which is the core of earlywarning. There are serious geological hazards in Xinjiang， which is taken as the example for the model study. Due to its own geological and geomorphological conditions， the geological hazards are controlled by strong endogenic and exogenic coupling effects. Earlywarning of geological hazards in Xinjiang is divided into several zones based on the genesis theory of endogenic and exogenic coupling. A explicit statistic model with selected optimum indexes is completed based on geographic information system （GIS）. In the model， the weights of earlywarning indexes of geological hazards are determined according to the experts experience， and the values of geological environment indexes are calculated. Then， the model is consistently verified by historical geological hazards， namely the results of earlywarning are the same.
Key words： geological hazard； meteorological earlywarning； endogenic and exogenic coupling； explicit statistic model； GIS； geological environmental index； product form； Xinjiang
相关热词搜索： 耦合 新疆 成因 预警 气象
